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PDF Popular Book By Drake Sullivan. PDF Best Seller By Mackenzie Crowne. Even if you are trading your own money all the time you owe it to yourself to understand well the importance of all these measures. If you do not, you will not last long in the business. If you are starting out, get the basics under your belt before you decide to part with your hard earned cash for training or other resources.

Reading this manual just might help to minimise the number of false steps you take along the way. Then, when you are ready to become a full time Forex trader, you will do so with a sound foundation and you will not have suffered too much in the way of disillusion along the way.

Computers in trading Every part of the trading transaction now involves the use of computers, from transmitting the order, to placing it, to keeping records and reconciling profits and losses. It was only a matter of time before the idea arose that traders could develop software that would take over some of the other tasks involved, such as putting in orders in accordance with a trading strategy.

A logical extension of this is the use of automation to manage trades and so the idea of, for example, the programmed trailing stop was born and implemented. In the large institutions this concept has been taken much further.

Computers are now regularly used to operate algorithms that analyse and act on the large number of variables that can affect prices. A PhD in mathematics, physics or one of the branches of engineering can now be a passport to a lucrative career in what has become known as algorithmic, or algo for short, trading. Because computers can act very much faster than humans they can place and close trades rapidly.

This has given rise to what is known as High Frequency Trading HFT. This has been blamed by many for the large and rapid price movements that can sometimes occur, often for no apparent reason, although this type of thing is, at present at least, more likely to happen on the equity or index markets than in Forex.

Although chess computers are now almost unbeatable by even the best humans the analogy between chess and the Forex market is not a good one. The designers of chess computing engines are aiming at a static target, as the rules of chess are fixed. Automated trading strategies are and will be aiming at a moving target. The advent of High Frequency Trading itself is the equivalent of inventing new chess pieces for the classic game, or of changing the number of squares on the 11 board.

One very beneficial effect of using software in various stages of private Forex trading activity is to provide a clear understanding of the need for discipline and how it can be imposed during the trading day or week. Computers are also eminently suitable for applying probability theory, which must be a cornerstone of any successful strategy.

They are very effective in back-testing, the process of trying out trading strategies using data going back in time, sometimes years. Computers, of course, do not experience fear or greed, those twin hazards which can bedevil not only trading in all sorts of markets but also much of the business activity that takes place in the real world.

Omicron Forex has developed software for placing and managing trades in the Java programming language using the Dukascopy Java Application Programming Interface API which is implemented on the JForex trading platform, also supplied by Dukascopy, among many other brokers.

Similar routines written in the MQL5 language for the MetaTrader 5 platform, from MetaQuotes Software Corporation, are currently in development by Omicron Forex. Dynamic historical charts teach discipline While static historical charts are useful, they suffer from the disadvantage of always allowing the viewer to see what happened after a particular event, such as a trade setup signal.

Using historical testing functionality such as that which is incorporated in the JForex platform or on MetaTrader, with appropriate software routines, a month of trading can be carried out in a matter of minutes.

The viewer is also seeing the performance of the strategy that is driving the historical tester and is thus able to confirm for him or her self the necessity of allowing one trade to go to its low preordained loss in order that others will be able to maximise their profit potential, when the strategy calls for it. This advantage is on top of the ability to adjust the various parameters of the automated strategy to optimise them for maximum profits. It is also a great learning experience.

Software routines for both the JForex and MetaTrader platforms are provided with full, step by 12 step instructions for their use in visual recreation of historical performance under their control.

They can be operated easily by even the most technologically challenged trader. All traders must think and act like professionals While you can certainly dabble in Forex for diversion, in order to have any expectation of making money out of it consistently it is imperative that you put yourself in the same position as the big players in regard to the fees you must pay and the technicalities of carrying out transactions.

Any platform or broker that imposes excessive spreads the difference between the price at which a currency can be bought and sold , that does not control slippage, that fails, ever, to execute a conditional order or who cannot resolve prices to five decimal places must be avoided at all costs. The good news is that these outfits can be dispensed with because there are many brokers out there who do fulfil all these requirements, and in addition have good customer support, including fast response to requests for repayment from accounts.

You might already be familiar with equities, options, indexes or even commodities, or you could be a complete beginner to trading. Whatever the case, there are a number of very important considerations to take into account before you go anywhere near a trading platform. You might have been made aware of these in the past, in which case you will definitely benefit from having them reiterated and prioritised.

If they are new to you, be assured that they are absolutely essential. They are concerned with risk management, equity retention, thinking in probabilities and the psychology of trading. You will probably already have heard of the need for discipline in trading. However, like many concepts, what this feels like in practice cannot be easily transmitted to new learners.

There are various means of getting over this difficulty and you will meet some of them as you proceed through the manual. Open all hours Forex differs from equities and other forms of trading in a number of ways.

One of the most often talked about distinctions is the fact that trading can take place on a 24 hour basis. This is because there are no central exchanges, as there are with equities and their derivatives where you have the New York Stock Exchange NYSE , the London Stock Exchange LSE , as well as exchanges in other centres such as Frankfurt, Wellington, Sydney and Tokyo.

Equity traders tend to be attached to one or, at most, two of these and are therefore constrained to trade during the hours when they are open. With Forex, bids and offers are accumulated and matched by a global system of interlinked computer networks that take the orders, from institutions and private individuals, and continuously adjust the exchange rates according to the prices and volumes that are made available or demanded by participants.

While large institutions are connected to this network directly, individuals access it through a Forex broker. While round the clock trading is possible, in practice there are a number of factors that have to be taken into account. The institutions drive the market, because they have the financial clout to do so.

As they are staffed by professionals whose working day is defined by where their office is situated, there will be a tendency for the markets to be busier when these people are at work.

The two most important centres for Forex are London and North America, comprising New York and Chicago, but also to be classed as major players are the traders who operate out of Tokyo, 14 Sydney and Frankfurt, each of which is in a different time zone. Lastly, weekends in the USA and Europe tend to be times when serious traders either relax or brush up on their research and learning. Many brokers arbitrarily close down trading over the weekends, while still allowing access to their systems for research and the checking of accounts, for this reason.

Long and short have no relevance You buy long and you sell short. In equity trading, selling short has been difficult in the past as there has been a need to borrow shares in order to take a short position. In addition, holders of company shares who sold stock could be accused of negativity. Nobody likes that. So buying shares is often the psychologically preferred position. In fact, there are some equity funds that are prevented by their charter from selling short.

These are known as long-only funds. Forex trading is done by reference to currency pairs and, as the order in which the pair is quoted has been arbitrarily decided as being the convention, in order to standardise trading, the concept of long or short has no real meaning, certainly not as it exists with equities. If the convention had the pairs quoted the other way round, as indeed might be the case in certain of the high street Foreign Exchange offices used by tourists and other travellers, you would have been encouraged to go short.

None of the technical issues that are involved in shorting equities are present in Forex. The convention that has decided the order of Forex quotes has also decreed that the first currency in the pair is called the base currency.

The second one is known as the quote currency. A highly liquid market The Forex market is liquid. In the major pairs, such as those involving the Euro, the US dollar and the Pound sterling, many billions are traded every day. This means that, unless a trade is attempted at a value that is very high indeed, certainly above the resources of even the wealthiest private trader, it will normally be filled without any problems. In equity trading, this is most certainly not the case.

Partial fills, the necessity to call the trading desk and excessive slippage getting your order filled at a price that is far away from that at which you requested it are all features of equity trading that either do not exist in Forex or are very rare indeed. Benefit from the needs of commerce and dealing direct Except in the case of an Initial Public Offering IPO , equity trading is a secondary market, and as such is removed from the day-to-day operations of the company that has issued the shares 15 share allocations and options for managers and employees apart.

Forex, on the other hand, constitutes in large part a primary market - there is a regular and significant demand for currency exchange by importers, exporters, central banks and other institutions, for whom the rate is incidental at the time of the trade.

These entities certainly try to eliminate exchange rate risk, mainly by hedging their exposure. They do this by buying or selling currency futures, which will ultimately impact the spot market the spot market caters for traders who need the present moment price, as opposed to the futures price, of a commodity, in this case a currency.

However, very often the international merchants need, and are prepared, to make large transactions regardless of what the exchange rate is when they do so. The best Forex brokers are the so called electronic communications network ECN brokers.

They will transmit the price and volume directly to their clients via their trading platforms and send the order straight to the bank, institution or private customer that is the counterparty. These things together are very much to the benefit of the private trader because they eliminate what might often be perceived as a conflict of interest on the part of the market maker or specialist who mediates in equity trading. Understanding the language Over time, various conventions have been brought into use to describe the behaviour of currency pairs and the way prices, or exchange rates, move.

It is important that you become familiar with these as they are an efficient way to communicate in relation to Forex, and they will also be found when you access other commentary and literature on the subject, which is recommended.

One example of this is the way price movement is sometimes described as moving in pips, rather than in fractions of whatever unit is the base currency of the pair. With the exception of those involving the Japanese Yen, the number of pips in the published rate of all currency pairs is 10, times the value of the exchange rate.

New ticks, 16 containing updated prices for all currency pairs handled by the platform, will arrive as often as many times a second during busy periods. Currency pair terminology There are a number of terms that have developed over time and which form part of the idiom of currency traders. One example of this is the names given to particular currency pairs. The Canadian one dollar coin carries the image of a bird known as a loon. Hedging Hedging is the practice of protecting open positions by taking another one that would tend to move in the opposite direction.

Sophisticated hedgers do this by purchasing options that will compensate them at expiry if a primary position moves into a loss.

They would regard the price of the option as something akin to an insurance premium. Hedging in Forex can happen when a trader decides to take a new position that amounts to half the value of an open position when the open position has moved into profit. This method of protecting profit is an alternative to taking off half the position to get the same result. The advantages of using a hedge in this way, as opposed to simply closing half of the profitable trade, is that the hedge can be removed again closed were the price to go into reverse but later resume its trend in the direction of profit.

Obviously this would have to happen before the original trade was stopped out by the trailing stop loss order that is always used. Another use for hedging on the same pair in Forex is where a trader with a long term position might wish to keep it open, but attempt to take profits on short term retracements from the 17 winning trend when these occur. This would result in simultaneously holding both long and short positions in the same currency pair.

In the National Futures Association NFA , the body that supervises the activities of Forex brokers and others in the USA, made a rule that bans the use of hedging in Forex trading as it is described above. The wisdom of this is strongly debated. The NFA claims, apparently, that the ban was placed because some traders failed to realise that they would be liable for additional commissions if they adopted the practice.

While this is true, the commissions would not be greater than if two positions were opened in different pairs, rather than in the same one. Most traders who do hedging regard each of the two trades as a separate entity, with its own stop loss and commission liability.

In any event, the practice is, as yet, fully legal and allowed outside of the USA. Therefore, all European brokers, and even the EU and British branches of US brokers, will allow their clients to hedge in Forex. Mind the gap In equity trading, where the various exchanges close at the end of the trading day and where no business can take place before they open up again in the morning, traders can be adversely affected by what have become known as trading gaps.

This is where, for any reason, the price has moved significantly while the market was closed and therefore opens at a level that is some distance away from where it closed the previous evening. These gaps are a major problem for traders for the simple reason that they can skip over protective stop loss orders and so lead to significant losses outside of what might have been allowed for by the strategy.

With Forex, these gaps do not appear overnight because of the 24 hour nature of Forex trading. They can, and do, however, appear over weekends. Because of this you should include it in your policy never to hold a position over the weekend. Brokers, too, do not encourage holding positions from late Friday until the following Monday.

One thing they will do to get this message across is to reduce the leverage allowed on your account funds over this period. This could easily cause your leverage percentage to decrease to below what is allowed for the aggregate value of the positions you hold, leading to liquidation of some or all of your position.

All in all, this is not something you want to risk. This would have simply jumped over a stop loss at the level shown if such an order were left open over the weekend. Order fulfilment was done manually too. In some cases, the order slips were simply tossed onto the trading floor when they had been filled out, to be collected and processed by backroom staff at the end of the day.

Foreign Exchange, or Forex, was a late comer to the trading scene, although the same techniques of technical analysis and algorithmic trading are now common to all. One reason for the newness of Forex trading is the fact that, up to about , all major currencies adhered to some or other variation of the Gold Standard, which meant that their exchange rates with each other were fixed.

It was only with the final ending of the Bretton Woods agreements that currencies were allowed to float relative to each other. Even today, a type of Gold Standard exists. The Euro itself is an example. Here economies that were accustomed to a variable exchange rate with each other are now constrained to operate with a single currency.

Not being able to allow the currency of one member state to float against the others has been a problem in certain cases, as some countries in the zone have been finding it difficult to operate their national economies without the ability to devalue their currencies relative to the economically stronger members of the zone, such as Germany, Holland and Finland. This is a particular problem for those nations that have had to accede to bailout terms from the so-called Troika of the ECB, The European Commission and the International Monetary Fund IMF in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis that started to make itself felt in Even after the end of the Gold Standard, currency exchange was solely the preserve of banks and other large institutions for many years.

It is only in relatively recent times that it has become possible for private citizens to carry out Forex trading on their own account. The advent of computerised dealing has been a major factor in this development. Computerised dealing is, of course, only one part of the story.

Once people have become used to 20 the idea of having the ability to place trades from the comfort of their living rooms — something that, up to recently, could only be carried out by insiders attached to large institutions, it is natural to start wondering if there are not other things in trading that the computer can be used for as well. The answer is not only that this can be the case, but that it must be so. The reason for this is that other traders are doing it, and trading is, as always, a zero sum game.

Every unit of profit that you make means a corresponding loss for another trader. It is a war and if you allow the opposition to have a technological advantage, you have lost. One thing to bear in mind when using computers to select, place and manage trades is that the perfect strategy, whether automated or not, simply does not exist. This cannot and never will happen. It cannot, because market price movement is complex and unpredictable, and it will not because the determinants of price movement patterns are unbounded: that is to say that as soon as an infallible system ever looks like coming into being, market forces will dictate that the existing standards that govern price change will themselves change.

High Frequency Trading In recent times the phenomenon of High Frequency Trading, or HFT, has taken hold among institutions and hedge funds. This is a controversial practice and involves the operators using computers to get themselves into the order flow of those who want to exchange large quantities of a particular currency or equity.

The high frequency trader adds on or subtracts if dealing with a short position a very small amount to the price and then allows the trade to proceed to its normal conclusion. The trader that placed the original order pays a small amount more for the privilege, and the high frequency trader pockets the difference.

They will have programmed their computers to do this over and over, all day. Its proponents say it adds liquidity to trading and reduces spreads. Others have different opinions about it. It seems that high frequency trader computer algorithms had gotten themselves into an unending loop after a very large conventional order was placed as a hedge against what was a falling market, which they tried to intercept.

The infinite loop rapidly dropped the market without any regard for the price of the securities being traded. The situation was eventually stabilised, and now so-called circuit breakers have been introduced to try to prevent a recurrence.

The kind of algorithmic trading that Omicron Forex is concerned with, and which forms part of the subject matter of this manual, is not High Frequency Trading. It is instead a resource for 21 traders who have come to believe that a computer can be a useful assistant in their quest for effective and efficient Forex trading. Volatility and its consequences Times of high volatility are normally associated with larger moves in the market than if volatility is low. Strategies that are designed for trending markets where the price moves generally in an up or down direction for an extended period tend to do better at times of high volatility, while those that are geared for ranging markets where price effectively moves sideways with small oscillations do better when it is low.

The Omicron Forex breakout strategy is designed to make its profits in trending markets, but if it is in the market at a time when there is no trend i. the market is ranging , the operating parameters are set with the objective of ensuring that it at least does not suffer large losses. The ideal is to be ready for when the breakout takes place and to actually be in the market at those times, as slippage tends to become an issue if the position is taken up at the same time that price starts to move aggressively.

For the purposes of the breakout strategy, therefore, there is a distinction between two types of volatility. On the one hand there is the multi-directional type that tends to occur immediately after a market sensitive announcement, such as the US FOMC announcements on Fed Day, which can move prices both up and down dramatically in a very short time.

On the other hand there is the uni-directional kind, which results in the market moving a significant distance in a relatively short time. Stay far away from trading when the first kind is likely to take place, but if possible be already in the market on the correct side when the big, one-directional move occurs. Interestingly, the breakout strategy confers a reasonable chance that the position taken will be on the right side because the large, influential and well informed institutions may well have moved in that direction a little earlier, triggering your buy on the breakout.

The danger is that your position in this event will become a victim of stop hunters. All of the above signifies the reason why you should consider intervening for the purpose of deciding on which days extreme multi-directional volatility is likely to take place, and either stay on the sidelines or set the automated routine to go into the market some hours after the event if it is a scheduled event has taken place. Optimising the strategies Computers are now used for all of the following: for record keeping, to assist learning, to allow for the optimisation of strategies and to uncover other useful information from the data archives through historical and comparative analysis.

The most important Macro parameters are the decisions that are made about which days to refrain from trading and the minute bar that constitutes the trigger for the trade setup.

The decision about the percentage of equity to put at risk and the pairs that are used in order to achieve a measure of diversification would also fall into this category. Whichever kind of parameter is being dealt with, one thing is sure: its value is not chosen at random or as the result of guesswork, gut-feeling or instinct. It is arrived at as the consequence of careful quantitative analysis of the data.

The following is an example of how the values of the three Micro parameters might be arrived at. The first thing to be aware of is that the value of any one parameter is of considerably less importance than the effect on performance of the combined values of all parameters. This makes optimisation difficult because when testing, it is important not to change more than one variable at a time. Of paramount importance is the need to make a note of the values used at each iteration, or individual test.

The potential for confusion is high. The upside of this is that as testing proceeds, the tester gets a much greater feel for how the particular pair under scrutiny behaves.

And each one seems to have its own characteristics. The value of this is enormous. Remember that it is not a universal Forex robot that is in prospect here, and it has already been decided that intervention is allowed to stop trading during those periods that are known to have a high probability of showing extreme bi-directional volatility. The month of August has been picked to demonstrate the process. In some cases the parameters are divisors, as in the case of the trailing stop step.

This simply means that the larger the parameter, the smaller the step. Another thing about the reach is that in the case of large bars, it is the bar itself that defines the value. This is justified on the basis that large bars are most often followed by other large bars, particularly at session starts.

The trailing stop step is simply the amount of each increment that the stop is moved in the direction of profitability as a successful trade progresses. The settings for the parameters have been optimised at Reach breakout channel width : 10, Trailing stop handle: 1. The trigger bar is GMT minute bar. These are figures based on optimised parameters. This means that time went into testing all sorts of different combinations of the parameter values.

Will the outcome be the same if the automated strategy is run next month, or in any other month you choose to select? The answer is almost certainly not. The result is not likely to be better and it could be a lot worse. It might even be a loss. The real value of the exercise lies in allowing judgements to be made about what constitutes the important factors in trading success. When you have carried out many exercises of the sort described here, you will be in little doubt but that risk control and money management are paramount.

This will be mentioned often - it is one fact that can bear frequent repetition. One risk mitigator is the use of several currency pairs at once. This has been found to be of value in ironing out extremes in the equity curve. Always remember, however, that when several pairs are used the amount risked on each must be adjusted to keep within money management guidelines.

The parameters might well be readjusted in the light of results over a longer period. Quarterly is a good choice as this represents the normal reporting period for businesses and institutions. Seasonality is another factor that must be borne in mind. They should be taken out and the routine run again with the same parameters and time period. But here is the thing: those days simply cannot be picked by reference to the trade log just produced.

That would be curve-fitting, otherwise known as cherry picking. Whatever changes are made must be capable of getting good results in all other months.

For this reason they must be specific, generic modifications that will always apply. While this is simulated, every tick is accounted for and the results do represent an accurate assessment of what would have transpired under live conditions. With the sole exception of the users deciding the days on which no trading should take place, the strategy criteria for choosing and managing each trade were the same throughout or were under the control of the software, without any user intervention, during the period.

Please note that in the example above the percentages quoted are percentages of equity in the account and do not represent the relative rise and fall of the exchange rate. The amount wagered in each trade will have been different than others. The equity curve below is for the EURUSD pair during the first six months of The main characteristic of the strategy was a tight Stop Loss setting under the control of the trailing stop incorporated in the strategy.

Trades took place every day on which trading was possible, including Fed days and US NonFarm payroll days. The vital statistics are: 28 It can be seen from the graph that the May period was the one in which profitability went into reverse.

Perhaps the large Forex players adhere to the same principle, which would result in a thin, choppy market that would not suit a breakout strategy. The next graph is of the same instrument over the same period, with all parameters exactly the same with the exception of the trailing stop, which has been made less tight than in the first example. In theory this should allow trades to develop better and, indeed, the win ratio is slightly improved. The largest drawdown and the overall profitability are not as good, however.

The equity curve in the looser trailing stop example is also more volatile, showing big wins and longer periods of continuous losses as opposed to the smoother progression that is to be preferred.

One point to note though is that the maximum profit reached exceeded that of the first example. This, however, is a comment made with the benefit of hindsight. This example reinforces the well observed fact that control of loss and profit protection through careful trade management is vital. Uncovering other insights As well as the Historical Tester, the Dukascopy JForex trading platform incorporates the 30 Historical Data Manager.

This makes a large amount of historical price and time data available so that other, relevant, information can be unlocked from it. The importance of dealing in probabilities has been emphasised elsewhere. Therefore, as one example, it would make sense to uncover the best time bars on the chart from which the breakout strategy might be launched.

As always, the results have to be treated with caution and supported by other testing, but partly as a result of the above it was determined that the best time to initiate the strategy was at the close of the GMT minute bar. Other information was gleaned from analysis showing the results of trades that were initiated in this manner.

A number of techniques are used for this, one of the most important of which is the trailing stop. At this stage it should be understood by all market participants that trading without the benefit of a stop loss order is sheer lunacy.

It is a safety net that prevents total disaster in the event that any given trade goes in the wrong direction. It must also be used to lock in paper profits and to quickly reduce the risk of any loss at all in the trade. In order to allow it to do that it needs to be moved, as on a one-way street, in the direction of profit as soon as the exchange rate starts to go in the right direction. The trailing stops have been automated and made an integral part of the Omicron Forex automated trading routine.

Immediately a trade starts to move beyond the entry price into profit the trailing stop software starts to operate so that it can move the stop loss order in the right direction. Once again, it has been established that the trailing stop is of immense significance for the success of the trading strategy. The design of its component parts is a truly important factor in the success of the method. A trailing stop is made up of two essential elements, the profit level at which the first move is made and the steps in profit on which any subsequent ratchet up or down takes place.

This can be independent of the distance from the entry to the original stop loss level that was put in place when the order was initiated, although this is normally the starting position.

Below is what the sequence of events looks like when a trade has moved into profit. The trailing stop has taken control of the stop loss order, according to the programmed handle size and step amount. Care has gone into finding the optimum values for both of these. If the trailing stop is too loose excess paper profit will be given back in the event of a reversal.

If it is too tight the trade will not have a chance to develop. Paper profits constitute part of your equity and, as such, must be fiercely protected. Stop loss orders only go in one direction, like a ratchet, towards profitability. Compounding If you begin trading with a certain amount in your account your equity and you make a profit in the first month, you will obviously have a larger amount at the start of the second month.

The same percentage profit will therefore result in somewhat larger absolute earnings in the second period. This is the basis of compounding. Over time it is very powerful. As you might expect, mathematicians have developed a formula for compound interest. Over many periods, consistent success can lead to impressive amounts when profits are achieved and compounded. This is one reason why percentages should be used in the calculations carried out for trading. Another, very important one is that this method also works in reverse.

If you confine the amount that you risk to a percentage of your equity for each trade as opposed to using an absolute amount, and you hit a losing streak, you will progressively risk less on each new trade. This will keep you in the game longer.

Just as in any other business, money is the lifeblood of trading.

Home The Omicron Forex Trading Manual [PDF] Includes Multiple formats No login requirement Instant download Verified by our users. The Omicron Forex Trading Manual [PDF] Authors: Seamus A. McKenna PDF Add to Wishlist Share.

This document was uploaded by our user. The uploader already confirmed that they had the permission to publish it. Report DMCA. E-Book Overview The Omicron Forex Trading Manual is a literate and focused explanation for non-specialists of Forex strategies for automated algorithmic trading using the Dukascopy JForex Java API and associated software routines developed by Omicron Forex. The manual is also a guide to the essential general requirements of Forex trading which all traders must master.

These include the ability to think in probabilities, to maintain discipline which the automated strategies are designed to assist with and master the psychology of Forex Trading. The manual improves the Forex trading learning process. It shows how discipline can be maintained.

It also explains how the software does back-testing and it demonstrates why algorithms are important. This way lies potential disaster. The Omicron Forex Trading Manual contains an introduction to the automated strategies and does not include the software routines themselves.

E-Book Content By Seamus McKenna MBA 2 Copyright © Omicron Forex. All rights reserved This publication, the Omicron Forex website and all material contained in them or referred to by them are for educational purposes only. Neither Omicron Forex nor anybody connected with the production of this manual provides investment advice. Forex trading carries considerable risk and for this reason you should only trade with funds you can afford to lose. Remember that leverage can allow you to put at risk more than your original stake.

Success in Forex is a function of long-term, disciplined activity. You should make risk control and capital retention techniques and practices the primary focus of your learning. Simulated or demo account performance may not be the same as live account performance. I have been trading electronically since About the mid point of my career, during one of those occasional downturns in construction, I became involved in data mining and data analysis, which I practiced on a full-time basis with a number of large global corporations, one involved in fast moving consumer goods FMCG , and well known for its toothpaste, and the other a major oil company.

As you can imagine, such companies have gathered great bodies of information in their databases over time and are anxious to leverage it by analysing it and putting the results to commercial use.

The techniques for unlocking the secrets of large quantities of data include statistical methods and probability analysis, one branch of which is involved with game theory, or the mathematical study that leads to optimisation. I have traded equities, index futures and options. All have their pros and cons, but the instruments I have found to be most amenable to the treatment I wanted to apply have been currency pairs, which are what is traded in Foreign Exchange, or FOREX or simply FX for short.

The reasons for this have to do with the very large liquidity of the Forex markets, the fact that pairs have a tendency to trend more often and for longer than other traded instruments, and the effect on the markets of those who exchange currencies for commercial reasons e.

Japanese car manufacturers, who export a lot of their product as opposed to the pure speculators and proprietary traders who make up much of the market in, for example, equity futures. I have been able, for the last four years, to concentrate all my efforts on perfecting the systems that have allowed me to reach a stage where I can trade currencies with confidence and tranquillity.

I have been helped along the way by the excellent books I recommend in the bibliography, such as those by Mark Douglas, Dr. Alexander Elder and others, because they deal very well with risk control and money management, which are subjects that must never, ever be forgotten, no matter how good or reliable your systems.

I have tried many Forex brokers, starting with those in the United States and then moving to Europe. They offered a variety of trading platforms. Good customer service would also be nice.

The good news is that all of these things are now freely available so long as you know where to look. They simply do not work. What the Omicron Forex automation does is to take over certain functions that are more appropriate for computers to handle. It helps to maintain discipline computers have no emotions and any tendency to override the system is immediately recognisable as a breakdown in the control and restraint that is essential for the working of any trading strategy.

The software routines are used for extensive research and back testing. Importantly, to see automated routines in action can significantly improve the learning process. Omicron Forex sells its expertise in Forex research to institutions, brokers and individuals. This can include transfer of the rights to the software routines described in this manual. Further details can be found on the Omicron Forex website, at www.

Stephen R Covey: The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People If you are a newcomer to Forex or even if you have been involved in trading other instruments such as equities, futures or options, you should prepare yourself using this manual or other reasonably priced resources before you part with any money for Forex training courses.

You should be very wary of web sites that promise you can make a living as a Forex trader after a short time if you do their course. They do exist. Before you can be eligible to trade with their cash, however, they naturally expect you to be able to demonstrate that you will not lose it instead of making a return with it. For this they ask that you undertake a 25 day demonstration period.

There are just over 20 days in a typical trading month 5 days per week x four weeks so this is five weeks in total. You are not allowed to hold Forex positions over the weekend if you were trading equities for them you would not be allowed to hold positions overnight. This is to guard against gaps, which are relatively large movements in price that can occur when the market is closed and which can defeat the whole purpose of a stop-loss order.

All of these things are designed to demonstrate that you are not only profitable, but that you can maintain consistent but safe trading, day in day out. This is not easy and it is totally irresponsible of anyone to imply that you can learn to do something like this after four weeks or so of training.

Note the emphasis on risk in all cases. Even if you are trading your own money all the time you owe it to yourself to understand well the importance of all these measures. If you do not, you will not last long in the business. If you are starting out, get the basics under your belt before you decide to part with your hard earned cash for training or other resources.

Reading this manual just might help to minimise the number of false steps you take along the way. Then, when you are ready to become a full time Forex trader, you will do so with a sound foundation and you will not have suffered too much in the way of disillusion along the way.

Computers in trading Every part of the trading transaction now involves the use of computers, from transmitting the order, to placing it, to keeping records and reconciling profits and losses. It was only a matter of time before the idea arose that traders could develop software that would take over some of the other tasks involved, such as putting in orders in accordance with a trading strategy.

A logical extension of this is the use of automation to manage trades and so the idea of, for example, the programmed trailing stop was born and implemented. In the large institutions this concept has been taken much further. Computers are now regularly used to operate algorithms that analyse and act on the large number of variables that can affect prices. A PhD in mathematics, physics or one of the branches of engineering can now be a passport to a lucrative career in what has become known as algorithmic, or algo for short, trading.

Because computers can act very much faster than humans they can place and close trades rapidly. This has given rise to what is known as High Frequency Trading HFT. This has been blamed by many for the large and rapid price movements that can sometimes occur, often for no apparent reason, although this type of thing is, at present at least, more likely to happen on the equity or index markets than in Forex.

Although chess computers are now almost unbeatable by even the best humans the analogy between chess and the Forex market is not a good one. The designers of chess computing engines are aiming at a static target, as the rules of chess are fixed.

Automated trading strategies are and will be aiming at a moving target. The advent of High Frequency Trading itself is the equivalent of inventing new chess pieces for the classic game, or of changing the number of squares on the 11 board. One very beneficial effect of using software in various stages of private Forex trading activity is to provide a clear understanding of the need for discipline and how it can be imposed during the trading day or week. Computers are also eminently suitable for applying probability theory, which must be a cornerstone of any successful strategy.

They are very effective in back-testing, the process of trying out trading strategies using data going back in time, sometimes years. Computers, of course, do not experience fear or greed, those twin hazards which can bedevil not only trading in all sorts of markets but also much of the business activity that takes place in the real world. Omicron Forex has developed software for placing and managing trades in the Java programming language using the Dukascopy Java Application Programming Interface API which is implemented on the JForex trading platform, also supplied by Dukascopy, among many other brokers.

Similar routines written in the MQL5 language for the MetaTrader 5 platform, from MetaQuotes Software Corporation, are currently in development by Omicron Forex.

Dynamic historical charts teach discipline While static historical charts are useful, they suffer from the disadvantage of always allowing the viewer to see what happened after a particular event, such as a trade setup signal.

Using historical testing functionality such as that which is incorporated in the JForex platform or on MetaTrader, with appropriate software routines, a month of trading can be carried out in a matter of minutes. The viewer is also seeing the performance of the strategy that is driving the historical tester and is thus able to confirm for him or her self the necessity of allowing one trade to go to its low preordained loss in order that others will be able to maximise their profit potential, when the strategy calls for it.

This advantage is on top of the ability to adjust the various parameters of the automated strategy to optimise them for maximum profits. It is also a great learning experience. Software routines for both the JForex and MetaTrader platforms are provided with full, step by 12 step instructions for their use in visual recreation of historical performance under their control.

They can be operated easily by even the most technologically challenged trader. All traders must think and act like professionals While you can certainly dabble in Forex for diversion, in order to have any expectation of making money out of it consistently it is imperative that you put yourself in the same position as the big players in regard to the fees you must pay and the technicalities of carrying out transactions.

Any platform or broker that imposes excessive spreads the difference between the price at which a currency can be bought and sold , that does not control slippage, that fails, ever, to execute a conditional order or who cannot resolve prices to five decimal places must be avoided at all costs.

The good news is that these outfits can be dispensed with because there are many brokers out there who do fulfil all these requirements, and in addition have good customer support, including fast response to requests for repayment from accounts. You might already be familiar with equities, options, indexes or even commodities, or you could be a complete beginner to trading. Whatever the case, there are a number of very important considerations to take into account before you go anywhere near a trading platform.

You might have been made aware of these in the past, in which case you will definitely benefit from having them reiterated and prioritised. If they are new to you, be assured that they are absolutely essential. They are concerned with risk management, equity retention, thinking in probabilities and the psychology of trading. You will probably already have heard of the need for discipline in trading. However, like many concepts, what this feels like in practice cannot be easily transmitted to new learners.

There are various means of getting over this difficulty and you will meet some of them as you proceed through the manual. Open all hours Forex differs from equities and other forms of trading in a number of ways.

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